Van Allen Probe A expected to burn up in atmosphere with minimal risk to people
March 10, 2026: The retired satellite Van Allen Probe A is expected to reenter Earth’s atmosphere soon after more than a decade in orbit. The 600-kilogram spacecraft was launched in August 2012 along with its twin, Van Allen Probe B, as part of a mission by NASA to study the radiation belts surrounding Earth, known as the Van Allen radiation belts. Both satellites were officially deactivated in 2019 after completing their scientific objectives.
According to the United States Space Force, the satellite is predicted to reenter the atmosphere around 7:45 p.m. EDT on Tuesday, with a margin of error of plus or minus 24 hours. NASA officials said most of the spacecraft is expected to burn up during its descent through the atmosphere, although some components may survive the intense heat of reentry.
Experts say the risk to people on the ground is extremely low, estimated at roughly 1 in 4,200. Scientists note that because around 70 percent of Earth’s surface is covered by oceans, any debris that survives reentry is far more likely to land in open water than in populated areas.