National Hurricane Center Flags Potential Tropical System for Gulf Coast

July 23, 2025: The National Hurricane Center (NHC) is closely monitoring an area of low pressure along the southeastern U.S. coastline, which has the possibility of developing into a tropical system later this week. This trough of low pressure is currently producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms.

System Movement and Development Chances
Over the next day or two, the system is forecast to move west-southwestward into the north-central portion of the Gulf, where some slow development is possible. However, by this weekend, the system is likely to move inland, ending its chances for further development.

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Rainfall and Flood Outlook

Weather experts are currently giving the system a 10% chance of development over both the next 48 hours and the next seven days. Regardless of tropical cyclone formation, the FOX 35 Storm Team says locally heavy rainfall is possible for portions of Florida over the next day or so, and for the northern Gulf through the weekend. About 2-3 inches of rain could fall across much of the northern Gulf, with some locally higher amounts.

While widespread flash flooding isn’t expected, isolated flooding could pop up in pockets of heavy precipitation sitting over an area for too long. The southerly flow along the northern Gulf will likely last for days, which will also lead to an increased risk for rip currents along area beaches.

Rip Current Risk and Florida’s “Weather Impact Day”
A medium risk of rip currents is expected along the Florida Panhandle from Destin to Port St. Joe, as well as along the Atlantic coast from Daytona Beach southward through Melbourne and West Palm Beach, through the last weekend of July.

Because scattered showers and storms are likely this afternoon, bringing with it multiple waves of heavy rain, the FOX 35 Storm Team has designated Wednesday as a Weather Impact Day. Showers will begin later Wednesday morning, with the highest chances of the heaviest rain taking place from around 2-9 p.m. Areas to the west of Interstate 95 have the highest chance of showers and storms.

Heavy Rain Concerns and Clearing Skies
An additional 1-3 inches will be possible for many areas across the region. With tropical moisture at play, a lot of rain will fall over short periods of time. This could lead to a few isolated areas picking up more than 4 inches of rain, which could lead to the risk of flash flooding.

Any lingering showers and storms will slowly dwindle and fade overnight. Rain and storm chances will taper off as drier air begins to filter in. By Friday, only a few isolated to scattered showers and storms will be possible.