Geneva [Switzerland], December 6: The United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) has projected global trade to reach a record-breaking $33 trillion in 2024, marking a $1 trillion increase compared to 2023. This represents a robust annual growth rate of 3.3%, underscoring the resilience of global trade despite persistent challenges.
Key Drivers of Growth
According to UNCTAD’s latest Global Trade Update, trade in services played a pivotal role in driving this growth, surging by 7% in 2024 and accounting for half of the overall trade expansion. However, trade in goods grew by a modest 2%, still falling short of its 2022 peak.
“The growth in trade services reflects the global economy’s pivot towards digitalisation and value-added industries,” the report noted.
Challenges for Developing Economies
While advanced economies led the quarter’s growth, with imports rising by 3% and exports by 2%, developing economies faced significant hurdles. These regions experienced a 1% contraction in imports and a similar decrease in South-South trade during the third quarter of 2024.
Sector-Specific Insights
The report highlighted mixed performance across key sectors:
- ICT Goods and Clothing: These sectors surged, with ICT goods up by 13% and clothing by 14% in Q3 2024, highlighting opportunities for diversification into high-value industries.
- Energy Trade: Declined by 2% in Q3 and 7% annually, reflecting weakened global demand.
- Metals Trade: Contracted by 3%, continuing a downward trend.
- Automotive Trade: Shrunk by 3% in Q3 but is expected to end the year with a 4% annual growth rate.
Outlook for 2025
Despite ongoing obstacles, stable global growth forecasts and reduced inflation provide an optimistic outlook for 2025. The report also emphasised the importance of building resilience and diversifying trade in developing economies to ensure long-term stability.
“Developing countries can harness high-growth sectors like ICT and clothing to overcome current challenges and foster sustainable growth,” UNCTAD suggested.
