Easing Israel-Iran tensions and US-China trade optimism reduce safe-haven appetite, pressuring gold prices further
New Delhi, June 29, 2025 – Gold prices slumped for the second straight week as global risk sentiment improved, driven by the Israel-Iran ceasefire and renewed US-China trade progress. Analysts now expect MCX gold rates to drop as low as ₹94,000 per 10 grams, with a bearish bias dominating the near-term outlook.
On Friday, MCX gold (August futures) dropped ₹1,563 or 1.61% to close at ₹95,524 per 10 grams, after touching a session low of ₹94,951. The yellow metal lost 3.61% over the week, dragged down by weakening safe-haven demand. Silver (September futures) also fell by ₹1,468 or 1.36% to ₹1,06,429 per kg.
Meanwhile, Comex gold dipped below $3,270 per ounce, marking a 3% weekly decline and reinforcing bearish momentum across global markets.
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🌍 What’s Driving the Gold Slide?
- Geopolitical Risk Eases: A tentative ceasefire between Israel and Iran has held, calming investor nerves.
- Trade Sentiment Improves: US Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick hinted that new trade frameworks with China and others are nearing finalization.
- Dollar Weakens: The US dollar index slipped below 97.3 — its lowest since February 2022 — after Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s dovish testimony boosted expectations of interest rate cuts.
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📉 Analyst Commentary
“The slide in gold prices comes as geopolitical risks ease and global trade optimism strengthens, dampening safe-haven appetite,” said Jigar Trivedi, Senior Research Analyst at Reliance Securities.
Trivedi predicts continued weakness in gold amid improving global outlook and declining safe-haven demand.
📅 Key Triggers for Next Week
Gold’s trajectory next week will hinge on key data and events:
- US non-farm payrolls (June)
- ISM Manufacturing & Services PMIs
- US trade figures & ECB Central Bank Forum
- Trump administration’s July 9 tariff deadline
🪙 Gold Price Outlook: Technical Levels
- Comex Gold:
- Support: $3,230 – $3,200/oz
- Resistance: $3,350/oz
- MCX Gold (August Futures):
- Target: ₹94,800 – ₹94,000 per 10 grams
- Bias: Bearish
- Outlook: Momentum remains weak
🏷️ Tags:
gold price outlook, MCX gold forecast, Israel Iran ceasefire, safe haven demand, US-China trade talks, Comex gold, interest rate cut, dollar index, inflation hedge, bullion market