Gift Nifty signals upward bias; easing Israel-Iran tensions, US-China trade optimism, and Wall Street rally drive investor sentiment
June 30, 2025: The Indian stock market is poised for a positive start on Monday, June 30, as global market cues turn favorable. The Gift Nifty traded around 25,770, reflecting a modest premium of nearly 20 points over the Nifty 50 futures’ previous close, indicating a mildly bullish opening for benchmark indices Sensex and Nifty.
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Asian markets were trading higher, and Wall Street closed last week at all-time highs, fueled by strong investor appetite amid easing geopolitical tensions and signs of progress in US-China trade talks.
Key Market Drivers This Week
- Global Trade Talks
US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent confirmed significant progress in trade negotiations with China and 18 other countries, raising hopes of a comprehensive trade pact by September 1. - Middle East Ceasefire
The Israel-Iran ceasefire continues to hold, calming geopolitical nerves and reducing demand for safe-haven assets like gold and crude. - US Economic Data
Upcoming data on non-farm payrolls, ISM PMIs, and factory orders will shape expectations around the US Federal Reserve’s interest rate trajectory. - IPO Activity & FII Flows
A slew of IPOs and continued foreign fund inflows could keep domestic markets buzzing.
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Market Recap: Friday’s Rally
The Sensex surged 303.03 points (0.36%) to close at 84,058.90, while the Nifty 50 climbed 88.80 points (0.35%) to end at 25,637.80, marking the fourth straight session of gains. Analysts at Religare Broking suggest a “buy on dips” approach, backed by improving risk sentiment and broad market participation.
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Global Highlights
- Wall Street:
All three major indices closed the week in the green.- Dow Jones: +432.43 pts to 43,819.27
- S&P 500: +32.05 pts to 6,173.07
- Nasdaq: +105.55 pts to 20,273.46
- Asian Markets (Early Monday):
- Nikkei 225: +1.68%
- Topix: +0.96%
- Kospi: +0.85%
- Hang Seng Futures: Indicate stronger opening
- Japan Factory Output:
Slower-than-expected industrial output growth of 0.5% in May raises concerns on sustained recovery.
Commodity Check
- Gold:
Prices fell to a one-month low at $3,264.64/oz, tracking softening demand due to easing global uncertainties. - Crude Oil:
Brent fell 0.97% to $67.11/barrel, while WTI dropped 1.31% to $64.66/barrel, amid expectations of an OPEC+ production hike in August.
US Macro Pulse
- PCE Inflation:
Rose 0.1% in May, in line with April and forecasts — supporting a dovish Fed outlook. - Consumer Spending:
Unexpected dip of 0.1% raises caution on near-term growth. - Consumer Sentiment:
Jumped to 60.7 in June — a four-month high — signaling renewed optimism.
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Indian stock market, Nifty 50, Sensex, Gift Nifty, Wall Street rally, US-China trade talks, gold prices, oil prices, Israel Iran ceasefire, stock market opening