July 15, 2025:Nvidia (NVDA) made Wall Street history last week, becoming the first company to reach a $4 trillion market cap. But after an explosive run, NVDA stock paused on Monday as CEO Jensen Huang traveled to China—one of its most critical and controversial markets.
Huang is expected to meet senior Chinese officials and address media in Beijing, raising hopes that Nvidia may reenter the Chinese AI chip market with a new, compliant product. His trip comes amid growing U.S. scrutiny over AI chip exports and fears of military use by China.
Despite earlier setbacks—including writing off $5.5 billion due to U.S. licensing restrictions—Huang remains bullish on China’s potential. He previously called losing access to the country a “tremendous loss,” estimating China’s AI market could reach $50 billion within a few years.
Analysts remain largely optimistic. Loop Capital values Nvidia at $6 trillion with a $250 price target. Citi raised its price target from $180 to $190, citing strong sovereign AI demand, and Mizuho boosted its estimate to $185.
Nvidia’s dominance in AI chips continues to attract investor confidence. Mizuho analyst Vijay Rakesh highlighted the upcoming “Rubin” server, which may outperform current models by 3.3x and expand Nvidia’s reach in the data center space—especially if it shifts to air-cooled systems.
Despite CEO stock sales—Huang sold over 200,000 shares in late June—and some market volatility tied to global tensions and tariffs, Nvidia shares remain resilient. They gained 17% in June alone and are up nearly 46% this quarter.
The company is investing heavily in AI across Europe, the Middle East, and the U.S. Its partnership with CoreWeave and deals in the U.K. and Saudi Arabia show Nvidia’s push to cement global AI infrastructure leadership.
Meanwhile, AI-related spending from giants like Amazon, Meta, Microsoft, and Alphabet continues to fuel Nvidia’s growth. First-quarter earnings were strong: EPS rose 33%, and revenue surged 69% to $44.1 billion.
Still, not all forecasts are rosy. Seaport Research recently initiated coverage with a “sell” rating, citing complexity in Nvidia system deployment and concerns over a potential slowdown in AI spending by 2026. Additionally, Chinese tech giant Huawei is developing its own advanced AI chips, possibly threatening Nvidia’s edge.
Tariff risks also loom. While Trump initially paused new tariffs, he later raised them on China to 125%, sparking market jitters. However, semiconductor products were exempted.
To counter external risks, Nvidia is building AI supercomputers entirely in the U.S., with mass production expected within 15 months.
In the face of geopolitical tensions, market volatility, and new challengers, Nvidia’s strong fundamentals and relentless innovation may keep it ahead—but the path to a $6 trillion valuation will be anything but easy.