Survey shows TMC ahead despite slight dip, Banerjee’s popularity remains decisive factor
April 2, 2026: The strong personal preference for Mamata Banerjee appears to be a key factor driving the projected return of the All India Trinamool Congress to power in West Bengal. According to the latest survey, the TMC is expected to win between 174 and 184 seats in the 294-member Assembly, comfortably above the majority mark of 148. If the projection holds, it would mark a fourth consecutive term for Banerjee, albeit with a slightly reduced seat share compared to previous elections.
The Bharatiya Janata Party is projected to improve its performance, securing between 108 and 118 seats, but still trails significantly in terms of chief ministerial preference. While the BJP is likely to strengthen its position as the principal opposition, the survey suggests it continues to face challenges in matching Banerjee’s personal connect with voters. Meanwhile, the Indian National Congress and Left parties are expected to remain marginal, with a combined tally of just 0 to 4 seats.
Compared to earlier projections, the TMC shows a slight dip while the BJP gains ground, pointing to a tighter contest. Regional dynamics are expected to play a crucial role, with the BJP gaining traction in Midnapore and the TMC maintaining dominance in Presidency and Malda regions. The survey also highlights key voter concerns such as unemployment and development, along with law and order, women’s safety, and inflation, indicating that while leadership remains important, local issues could influence the final outcome.