India Meteorological Department said the southwest monsoon is likely to reach Kerala nearly six days ahead of schedule
May 16, 2026: The southwest monsoon is expected to arrive over Kerala on May 26, nearly six days earlier than the normal onset date of June 1, according to the India Meteorological Department. The weather agency said conditions are favourable for the monsoon to advance over parts of the south Bay of Bengal, the Andaman Sea and the Andaman and Nicobar Islands. The IMD also forecast widespread rainfall along the southern west coast over the coming days. The onset of monsoon over Kerala officially marks the beginning of the rainy season across the Indian mainland, which gradually progresses northward.
Despite the early arrival, weather experts cautioned that it does not necessarily guarantee above-normal rainfall for the entire season. Meteorologists explained that the progress and strength of the monsoon depend on factors such as low-pressure systems, ocean temperatures and wind patterns. Climate scientists are also closely watching the development of an El Nino event in the Pacific Ocean, which is generally associated with weaker monsoon rainfall and hotter summers in India. The US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration has projected a strong possibility of El Nino developing between May and July.
India receives nearly 70% of its annual rainfall during the June-September monsoon season, making it crucial for agriculture, water reserves and the economy. The IMD has already forecast below-normal rainfall for the 2026 monsoon season at 92% of the Long Period Average. At the same time, the weather department has warned of heatwave to severe heatwave conditions across northwest and central India, while forecasting heavy rainfall in parts of northeast India, Kerala, Tamil Nadu and Karnataka over the next few days.