December 31, 2024: The dramatic 184-run victory for Australia over India in the Melbourne Test of the Border-Gavaskar Trophy has significantly boosted their chances of making it to the World Test Championship (WTC) 2025 Final at Lord’s. With this win, Pat Cummins’ side is now on the brink of qualification, needing just one more Test victory to secure a top-two finish in the standings.
According to the ICC, Australia is currently the front-runner for the second spot, while India still has an outside chance, albeit requiring several favorable results to stay in contention. Sri Lanka is also mathematically alive in the race but faces a similarly difficult path to qualification.
Australia’s journey to the final was initially complicated after they lost the opening Test of the Border-Gavaskar series. However, the team bounced back in impressive fashion, winning their next two Tests in Adelaide and Melbourne, putting them in a commanding position. Their victory in Melbourne was particularly crucial, as it moved them closer to automatic qualification. To guarantee a spot in the final, Australia needs to win just one of their remaining three Test matches, securing a top-two finish in the standings.
India’s road to the final has been much more turbulent. Despite starting the 2024/25 season strong with a 2-0 series win over Bangladesh, the team suffered an unexpected loss to New Zealand at home and has since faced tough competition in Australia. After a historic loss in the opening Test, India bounced back with a win under stand-in skipper Jasprit Bumrah in Perth, but a series of losses in Australia has left their WTC hopes hanging by a thread. To qualify for the final, India must win the final Test of their series against Australia and then hope for a favorable result from Sri Lanka’s upcoming matches, or at least a 0-0 draw when Australia tours Sri Lanka in early 2025.
In a stunning turn of events, South Africa secured the first spot in the WTC 2025 final after a nail-biting win in the Centurion Boxing Day Test against Pakistan. The victory, thanks to a remarkable 10th-wicket partnership between Kagiso Rabada and Marco Jansen, confirmed South Africa’s place in next June’s final. Rabada and Jansen’s heroics were reminiscent of their performance in the ICC Men’s T20 World Cup 2024, where they were instrumental in South Africa’s semifinal win over Afghanistan. Their victory in Centurion saw them chase down 148 runs in a thrilling final innings, sending them to the WTC final with the two-wicket win.
New Zealand started their WTC campaign with high hopes, especially after sweeping their series in India, which seemed to bolster their chances of a second WTC title. However, their ambitions took a massive blow after losses to England in Christchurch, including a heavy defeat in the second Test in Wellington. To make matters worse, the Black Caps were penalized three points for a slow over-rate in their first Test, which dropped them from fourth to fifth in the standings. Despite a big win in their final Test against England, New Zealand’s chances have now been severely dented, leaving them with an uphill battle to make it to Lord’s.
Australia is in the driving seat and needs just one more win from their remaining three Tests to book their ticket to the WTC final.
India still has a chance, but their qualification now hinges on beating Australia in their final encounter and hoping for favorable results from Sri Lanka’s series.
Sri Lanka, though still in contention, requires several favorable results and must perform well in their upcoming series against Australia.
South Africa has already booked their spot, marking the first team to secure a place in the WTC 2025 final.
New Zealand and England are now out of contention for the final, with New Zealand’s hopes particularly dashed after consecutive losses.
The race for the final is heating up, and with just a few series left, teams will be battling for their places in the iconic Lord’s final.
