West Bengal Exit Polls 2026: BJP And TMC—Does BJP Have A Clear Edge?

The curtains have fallen on the 2026 West Bengal Assembly elections, and the exit polls suggest a historic showdown. After the second and final phase of voting concluded on Wednesday, various pollsters released their projections, and the results are sharply divided. While some agencies predict a massive upset for the Trinamool Congress (TMC), others believe Mamata Banerjee is set to return for a record fourth term.

The battle for the 294-member House requires 148 seats for a majority. With the official results scheduled for May 4, 2026, the state remains on edge as the BJP, led by Suvendu Adhikari, attempts to breach the ruling party’s strongest fortress.

Exit Poll Projections: A House Divided

The predictions show two very different stories. On one hand, agencies like Matrize and P-Marq see a clear edge for the BJP. On the other hand, People’s Pulse suggests that the TMC still holds a comfortable lead over its rivals.

• People’s Pulse (TMC Edge): This poll predicts a strong victory for the TMC with 177-187 seats, while placing the BJP far behind at 95-110 seats.
• P-Marq (BJP Edge): This agency projects the BJP crossing the majority mark with 150-175 seats, leaving the TMC with 118-138 seats.
• Matrize (BJP Edge): Similarly, Matrize sees the BJP taking 146-161 seats, suggesting a narrow but decisive victory for the saffron party.

The Left Front and Congress appear to be struggling significantly in these projections, with most pollsters predicting they will win only a handful of seats combined.

Can History Repeat Itself?

While the exit polls generate a lot of excitement, history shows they are not always accurate in West Bengal. In 2021, many agencies predicted a narrow win for the BJP, but the TMC ended up winning a massive 215 seats. Historically, the TMC has actually increased its seat count in every assembly election since 2011.

For the BJP, this election is a major test of whether issues like corruption charges and anti-incumbency can finally tip the scales. For Mamata Banerjee, a win would solidify her position as one of the most successful regional leaders in Indian history.

Key Takeaways for the May 4 Result

As we wait for the counting day, several factors will determine the final winner. The BJP has focused heavily on citizenship politics and local governance issues. Meanwhile, the TMC has leaned on its welfare schemes and the “daughter of Bengal” image of its leader.

Regardless of the projections, the actual numbers on May 4 will decide if West Bengal sees a change of guard or a continuation of the TMC era. Stay tuned for live updates as the counting begins.