Pollsters project comfortable majority for DMK alliance, AIADMK trails as TVK eyes strong debut
April 29, 2026: Exit poll projections suggest a comfortable majority for the Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam-led alliance in the Tamil Nadu Assembly Elections. Agencies like Matrize and People’s Pulse estimate the alliance could win between 122 and 145 seats in the 234-member Assembly, comfortably crossing the majority mark of 118. If these numbers hold, Chief Minister M. K. Stalin may secure a second consecutive term, following in the footsteps of his father M. Karunanidhi.
The All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam-led front is projected to trail, with estimates ranging between 65 and 100 seats. Meanwhile, actor Vijay’s party, Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam, is expected to make a notable debut, with projections placing it between 10 and 24 seats. The election, held in a single phase on April 23, recorded a historic voter turnout of 84.69 per cent, the highest in the state’s electoral history.
The contest was largely seen as a direct battle between Stalin and Edappadi K. Palaniswami, with campaign narratives focusing on governance versus anti-incumbency. Exit polls from the 2021 election had also predicted a DMK victory, largely getting the overall trend right despite overestimating seat numbers. With more than 5.7 crore voters and over 4,000 candidates in the fray, the final outcome will be confirmed on May 4, when votes are counted across the state.