 has projected an 80% chance of an El Niño event developing between June and August){kind=link}
The World Meteorological Organization has warned that a moderate to strong El Niño is likely to develop in the coming months
June 4, 2026: The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) has projected an 80% chance of an El Niño event developing between June and August, with the probability rising to over 90% that it could continue until at least November. El Niño, a periodic warming of sea-surface temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean, typically lasts between nine and twelve months and can significantly influence weather patterns across the globe.
According to the WMO, most forecast models indicate that the upcoming El Niño is likely to be at least moderate and could potentially become strong. WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo urged governments and communities to prepare for increased risks of droughts, heavy rainfall, heatwaves, food and water shortages, and climate-related disease outbreaks. The agency also warned that vulnerable crops could suffer poor harvests due to changing weather conditions.
The warning comes as global temperatures remain unusually high, with recent heatwaves affecting parts of Europe and Asia. United Nations Secretary-General Antonio Guterres said El Niño could intensify the impacts of global warming, adding further pressure on climate systems worldwide. The WMO noted that forecasts for June to August indicate above-normal temperatures across most regions of the planet, increasing the likelihood of extreme weather events in the months ahead.