Mojtaba Khamenei recently underwent surgery on his hand and suffered severe facial burns, according to a detailed report by media.
Furthermore, he is currently waiting for a prosthetic leg due to injuries sustained in the strike. Although he remains mentally sharp, these physical hurdles prevent him from engaging with his officials in the same way his father did.
IRGC Gains Power as Mojtaba Khamenei Recovers
Because of his limited mobility, Mojtaba Khamenei has had very little contact with Iranian generals during high-stakes negotiations. Consequently, many analysts believe a power vacuum is forming within the Iranian leadership. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) is quickly filling this void and taking a more active role in decision-making.
Experts like Sanam Vakil from Chatham House suggest that Mojtaba Khamenei is not yet in full command. Instead, the military often presents him with decisions that they have already finalized. Similarly, Ali Vaez from the International Crisis Group noted that Mojtaba Khamenei appears subservient to the Revolutionary Guards, making him a leader in name rather than a supreme authority.
Military Takes Over Diplomatic Decisions
The shifting power balance became clear when the IRGC blocked planned peace talks with the United States in Islamabad. This move directly overrode the civilian leadership, including President Masoud Pezeshkian. Since assuming office, Mojtaba Khamenei has not made a single public appearance or verbal statement. He likely avoids the spotlight because he does not want to appear weak to his enemies or the public.
To maintain secrecy and security, the leader only communicates through sealed, hand-delivered letters. Therefore, the traditional centralized authority of the Supreme Leader has transformed into a “board-style” leadership. In this new system, Mojtaba Khamenei acts like a board director while the military generals behave like the dominant board members.
Uncertain Future for Iran-US Diplomacy
Currently, an indefinite ceasefire remains in place between Iran and the United States. Both nations are looking for ways to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and resume formal negotiations. However, the internal flux within Iran makes the prospect of lasting diplomacy very uncertain.