—is projected to significantly expand its footprint in the state.){kind=link}
According to the Axis My India exit poll, the NDA alliance—which includes the BJP, Asom Gana Parishad (AGP), and Bodoland People’s Front (BPF)—is projected to significantly expand its footprint in the state.
NDA Seat Projections
- BJP: 70–80 seats (up from 60 in 2021)
- AGP: 7–9 seats
- BPF: 9–11 seats
- Total NDA: 88–100 seats
Opposition Alliance (CONG+) Seat Projections
The Congress-led bloc includes multiple regional and left-leaning parties such as:
- Congress: 22–30 seats
- Assam Jatiya Parishad (AJP)
- Raijor Dal
- Communist Party of India (Marxist)
- Communist Party of India (Marxist–Leninist) Liberation
- All Party Hill Leaders Conference (APHLC)
Together, the opposition alliance is projected to secure 24–36 seats, falling well short of a majority.
Others
Smaller parties such as:
- All India United Democratic Front (AIUDF)
- United People’s Party Liberal (UPPL)
- All India Trinamool Congress
- Aam Aadmi Party
are projected to win 0–3 seats combined, indicating a marginal role in the upcoming Assembly.
Vote Share Projection: NDA Maintains Strong Edge
In terms of vote share, the NDA is forecast to maintain a solid lead.
NDA Vote Share
- Total NDA: 48% (up from 44% in 2021)
- BJP: 37%
- AGP: 7%
- BPF: 4%
Opposition Vote Share
- Total CONG+: 38%
- Congress: 31%
- AJP: 3%
- Raijor Dal: 3%
Other parties are projected to hold smaller vote shares, including:
- AIUDF: 2%
- UPPL: 3%
- Others: 9%
The poll reports a margin of error of ±2%, meaning actual outcomes may vary slightly.
Region-Wise Breakdown: NDA Dominates Across Most Zones
The exit poll suggests the NDA could secure strong leads in almost every region of Assam, highlighting its widespread voter support.
Central Assam (41 Seats)
- NDA: 31–35 seats
- CONG+: 5–9 seats
Upper Assam (35 Seats)
- NDA: 26–28 seats
- CONG+: 7–9 seats
Bodoland Territorial Council (BTC) Region (15 Seats)
- NDA: 13–15 seats
- CONG+: Minimal presence
Hills And Barak Valley (13 Seats)
- NDA: 8–10 seats
Lower Assam (22 Seats)
Lower Assam is the only region where the opposition appears competitive:
- CONG+: 12–14 seats
- NDA: 8–10 seats
Swing Analysis: Voter Shift Boosts NDA Prospects
One of the most significant findings of the exit poll is the scale of voter movement in favour of the NDA.
Key trends include:
- 74% of NDA voters from 2021 are expected to remain loyal.
- 13% of opposition voters from 2021 are projected to have shifted to NDA.
- 13% of AIUDF voters from 2021 moved to NDA.
- 51% of UPPL voters from 2021 shifted to NDA.
Meanwhile, within AIUDF’s voter base:
- Only 20% stayed loyal.
- Around 61% moved towards the Congress-led alliance.
These shifts are believed to be among the biggest contributors to the NDA’s projected surge.
Why These Exit Polls Matter
Exit polls offer an early snapshot of voter trends and potential outcomes. However, they are not official results. Final outcomes depend on the counting of votes conducted by the Election Commission of India.
If the projections hold true, the NDA could return to power in Assam with an even stronger mandate than in 2021, consolidating its political dominance in the northeastern state.
Disclaimer
These figures are based on exit poll projections by Axis My India. Final election results may vary once official counting is completed.