The 2026 FIFA World Cup could be one of the hottest editions in the tournament’s history, with climate change significantly increasing the likelihood of extreme temperatures affecting matches, player performance and health.
A new analysis by Climate Central has found that 97 of the tournament’s 104 scheduled matches are now more likely to be played in temperatures exceeding 28 degrees Celsius (82.4 degrees Fahrenheit), a threshold that sports scientists associate with reduced athletic performance and increased health risks.
The findings have sparked fresh concerns among climate experts, health professionals and football stakeholders, who warn that rising global temperatures are beginning to reshape the sport at its highest level.
Majority Of Matches At Risk From Extreme Heat
According to the analysis, nearly half of all matches scheduled for the 2026 World Cup face at least a 50 percent chance of being played in conditions severe enough to affect player performance.
Researchers noted that climate change has increased the probability of performance-impairing heat in 26 matches by at least 10 percentage points.
One of the most concerning fixtures is the group-stage clash between Uruguay and Spain, scheduled for June 26 in Guadalajara, Mexico. Climate Central estimates a 70 percent chance that the match will be played in temperatures above the performance threshold, with climate change alone accounting for a 37 percentage-point increase in that probability.
How Heat Affects Football Performance
Sports scientists have long warned that high temperatures can significantly impact physical performance. Temperatures above 28 degrees Celsius can reduce sprinting ability, limit the total distance covered by players and slow recovery rates during matches.
As a result, teams may be forced to alter tactics, reduce intensity and manage player workloads more carefully.
Norwegian midfielder Morten Thorsby said the issue goes beyond player comfort and directly affects the quality of football on the pitch.
“This analysis makes clear that rising temperatures are not only a serious health risk for players and fans, but they are also starting to affect the quality of the game itself. When heat impacts sprinting, recovery and overall intensity, it changes the way football is played,” he said.
Experts Call For Stronger FIFA Safety Measures
The report comes amid growing pressure on FIFA to strengthen its heat-management protocols ahead of the tournament, which will be jointly hosted by the United States, Mexico and Canada.
An open letter signed by leading international experts has argued that FIFA’s current guidelines are insufficient to deal with the increasing threat posed by extreme heat. The experts warned that several host cities could experience temperatures exceeding internationally recognised safety thresholds for athletic competition.
Professor Mike Tipton of the University of Portsmouth stressed that rising temperatures could fundamentally alter the nature of the game.
“Playing in temperatures above 28 degrees Celsius changes the game, affecting tactics, tempo and overall quality. As temperatures climb further, the risks also increase,” he said.
Criticism Over FIFA’s Aramco Partnership
The debate has also reignited criticism of FIFA’s sponsorship agreement with Saudi oil giant Aramco. Climate and health advocates argue that promoting fossil fuel interests while confronting heat-related risks creates a contradiction for football’s governing body.
Experts involved in the open letter described the relationship as a potential conflict of interest, given the role fossil fuel emissions play in accelerating climate change and increasing the frequency of extreme heat events worldwide.
‘The World Cups Of The Past Won’t Happen Again’
Climate Central meteorologist Shel Winkley said the analysis reflects a broader reality that sport is increasingly being shaped by a warming planet.
“The World Cups of the past won’t happen again — not because the players have changed, but because the planet has,” Winkley said.
Biggest World Cup Ever Faces Growing Climate Challenge
The 2026 FIFA World Cup will be the largest edition in the tournament’s history, featuring 48 teams and 104 matches spread across 16 host cities in North America.
While the expanded format promises unprecedented global participation and fan engagement, critics warn that the tournament could also become one of the most visible examples of how climate change is affecting elite sport.
With temperatures expected to continue rising in the coming years, the challenge facing FIFA may extend beyond organising the world’s biggest football event to ensuring that players, officials and fans remain safe in increasingly extreme conditions.