India’s Birth Rate Falls Below Replacement Level

India’s total fertility rate has fallen below the replacement level of 2.1 for the first time

June 7, 2026: India’s Total Fertility Rate (TFR) has dropped below the replacement level for the first time, according to the Sample Registration System Statistical Report 2024. The TFR measures the average number of children a woman is expected to have during her lifetime. A replacement-level fertility rate of 2.1 is considered necessary to maintain a stable population from one generation to the next. While India’s population continues to grow and currently stands at around 1.45 billion, experts warn that long-term population decline could become inevitable if fertility rates remain below the replacement threshold.

The report highlights significant regional differences in fertility levels. Bihar recorded the highest TFR in the country at 2.9, followed by Uttar Pradesh (2.6), Madhya Pradesh (2.4), and Rajasthan (2.3). In contrast, Delhi reported the lowest fertility rate at 1.2, lower than Finland’s 1.3. Several southern and western states, including Tamil Nadu, Kerala, and West Bengal, recorded a TFR of 1.3, while Andhra Pradesh, Maharashtra, Punjab, and Jammu and Kashmir stood at 1.4. Researchers estimate that India’s population could peak within the next two decades before beginning a gradual decline.

Experts attribute the falling birth rate to changing social and economic realities. Families are increasingly choosing to have fewer children due to rising education costs, urbanisation, and the shift from joint to nuclear families. Cultural attitudes have also evolved, with smaller families becoming more desirable. Tech entrepreneur Elon Musk reacted to the report on social media, noting that India’s birth rate has fallen below replacement levels, particularly among the highly educated. Studies also suggest that greater exposure to media, technology, and urban lifestyles has influenced family-planning decisions across the country.