April 25, 2026: US financial regulators have launched investigations into what critics describe as a potentially unprecedented insider-trading scandal involving highly timed bets on oil futures and stock indices ahead of major policy announcements by President Donald Trump related to the Iran conflict. The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has begun a formal probe into trading activity on CME Group and Intercontinental Exchange platforms, while the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has been urged by lawmakers to open a parallel inquiry, though it has not yet commented.
Authorities flagged multiple suspicious trading spikes, including massive oil and S&P 500 futures activity minutes before Trump’s announcements that triggered sharp market swings. Similar patterns were observed earlier in March, with large bets placed shortly before news events linked to Iran policy shifts. Reports also highlighted prediction market activity that allegedly earned significant profits from correctly anticipating military and diplomatic developments, raising further concerns about possible access to non-public information.
The White House has dismissed allegations of wrongdoing, calling them “baseless and irresponsible,” while exchanges involved said they strictly monitor trading activity and cooperate with regulators. However, lawmakers and analysts argue the recurring timing patterns warrant deeper scrutiny, with some describing Trump’s market influence as historically unprecedented due to the volatility triggered by his public statements.