A new WMO report warns that global temperatures are likely to remain at record or near-record levels through 2030
May 28, 2026: A new report released by the World Meteorological Organization has warned that global temperatures are expected to remain at or near record highs over the next five years. The report, produced with support from the UK Met Office, predicts that annual global temperatures between 2026 and 2030 could remain between 1.3°C and 1.9°C above pre-industrial levels recorded during 1850-1900. According to the findings, there is an 86 per cent chance that one of the next five years could surpass 2024 as the hottest year ever recorded globally.
The report also stated that there is a 75 per cent probability that the average warming during the 2026-2030 period will exceed the critical 1.5°C threshold outlined in the Paris Climate Agreement. Scientists further warned that Arctic temperatures during northern hemisphere winters could rise nearly 2.8°C above the 1991-2020 average, leading to further decline in sea ice levels across regions such as the Barents Sea, Bering Sea and Sea of Okhotsk. Researchers noted that although yearly temperatures may temporarily cross 1.5°C, it does not yet mean the long-term climate goals of the Paris Agreement are permanently out of reach.
The update also highlighted growing chances of El Niño conditions developing during 2026, particularly strengthening through 2027 and 2028. Experts said this could further intensify global warming and disrupt weather systems worldwide. In India, El Niño conditions are generally associated with harsher summers and weaker monsoon rainfall. Scientists and climate experts continue to monitor global weather patterns closely as rising temperatures, Arctic warming and changing ocean conditions increase concerns over future climate risks.